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06/13/2010 - Sparta, KY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Joey Logano outran Carl Edwards in the closing laps and beat the weather to win Saturday's Meijer 300 Nationwide Series race at Kentucky Speedway.
Logano passed Brendan Gaughan and took the lead for good with less than 25 laps remaining. Edwards then chased down Logano within the last 10 laps, but he held off Edwards by 0.67 seconds for his first victory of the season and the seventh of his Nationwide career.
His last win came in October 2009 at Fontana, CA.
Logano became the first driver in series history to win three consecutive races at the same track after starting on the pole for each one of those events. When Logano won his first Nationwide race at Kentucky in 2008, he became the youngest winner at age 18 years and 21 days.
"Oh man, I don't know what feels better, getting three-for-three here or finally getting a win this year," said Logano, who led a race-high 106 laps. "We've had quite a few stolen, and with Carl running right up there at the end, I was saying, 'I don't want to lose another one this way'."
The 300-mile race featured a track record-tying 10 cautions for 51 laps. Logano lost the lead after several late-race restarts, but managed to reclaim the top position shortly after.
"On my restarts, for at least on the first lap, I wasn't up to speed that good, and after that, I was able to make something of this car," he added.
Logano pulled into victory lane just before a severe thunderstorm moved over the 1.5-mile track. Teams were preparing pit strategies in the late-stages of the race in anticipation of the rain shortening the scheduled 200-lap distance.
Edwards finished in the runner-up spot for the second week in a row, while points leader Brad Keselowski overcame a 25th starting position to finish third.
"I'm sure Joey has had a long week, and he deserves that win," Edwards said. "I had him on that high line. I was up there, and I thought, 'Man, I hope they don't tell him what I am doing,' but I knew they were, and he got back up there."
Keselowski now holds a comfortable 272-point advantage over Edwards.
"It was one of those days, but we came away and brought home a solid finish for [this team]," Keselowski said.
Logano, Edwards and Keselowski are pulling the Kentucky-Michigan combo this weekend. The Sprint Cup Series will race at Michigan International Speedway on Sunday. Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick missed out on the Nationwide race for the second week in a row to concentrate on their Sprint Cup efforts.
Gaughan, who was looking for his first Nationwide win, wound up finishing fourth, and Reed Sorenson took the fifth spot.
Steve Wallace, Scott Wimmer, Justin Allgaier, Scott Riggs and rookie Colin Braun completed the top-10.
<< Salazar and LeBlanc lead Padres past Mariners
San Diego, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Oscar Salazar hit a three-run home run to
help the San Diego Padres dominate the Seattle Mariners, 7-1, in the second of
a three-game interleague set.
Adrian Gonzalez hit a two-run home run and scored
<< Guillen's 10th-inning homer lifts Tigers over Pirates
Detroit, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Carlos Guillen's homer to start the bottom of
the 10th inning gave the Detroit Tigers a 4-3 win over the Pittsburgh Pirates
in the second of a three-game interleague set.
With Brendan Donnelly (2-1) on the
<< Hamilton homers, Rangers hang on to beat Brewers
Milwaukee, WI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Justin Smoak hit a two-run double and Josh
Hamilton blasted a solo home run, as the Texas Rangers held on to beat the
Milwaukee Brewers, 4-3, in the middle portion of a three-game interleague
series
<< Hammel impressive on the mound as Rockies shut out Jays
Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jason Hammel and Manuel Corpas combined on a
four-hitter in Colorado's 1-0 victory over Toronto in the middle meeting of a
three-game interleague set at Coors Field.
Hammel (4-3) yielded only three hits,
Florida downs Miami, advances to CWS >>
Gainesville, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Austin Maddox's RBI double in the top of
the 10th inning lifted Florida over Miami-Florida, 4-3, sending the Gators to
the College World Series.
Florida, which won 7-2 in the opener of this best-of-t
UCLA coach Howland has surgery >>
Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - UCLA head men's basketball coach Ben
Howland underwent successful surgery to repair a ruptured right Achilles
tendon.
The procedure was performed on Friday at the Ronald Reagan UCLA Medi
Rivera homers as Angels edge Dodgers >>
Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Juan Rivera clubbed a two-run homer to help
the Angels defeat the Dodgers, 4-2, in the middle contest of a three-game
interleague series at Chavez Ravine.
Howie Kendrick and Torii Hunter each had an
Robben ruled out of Dutch opener >>
Johannesburg, South Africa (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Arjen Robben has been ruled out
of the Netherlands' World Cup opener against Denmark on Monday due to a
hamstring injury.
Dutch manager Bert van Marwijk said that it was too risky to pl
(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).
The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.
The San Francisco 49ers (5-11 SU, 5-10-1 ATS in 2007; 1-1 SU & ATS in pre-season) found some offensive life last week, and they will try to build some momentum on Thursday night as they travel to the Windy City to take on the Chicago Bears (7-9 SU & ATS in 2007; 0-2 SU, 0-1-1 ATS in pre-season) in an NFL matchup that is set to get underway at 8 PM ET at Soldier Field (natural turf) in Chicago.
Thursday, August 21
NFL betting odds: CHICAGO -3 (-120), Total 37
NOTABLE STAT: San Francisco was last in points, last in total offense in 2007
KEY NFL BETTING TREND: SF has lost its last seven SU on pre-season road
In the BetUS NFL pre-season football betting odds, the Bears are listed as a three-point favorite (laying -120), with the total posted at 37 points.
Here are some NFL football betting trends as they relate to this matchup (reflecting numbers going into the 2008 season):
* SF has lost 11 of its last 14 games SU
* SF has covered three of its last 11 games
* SF has lost six of its last seven road games SU
* SF has covered one of its last seven road games
* CHI has covered five of its last eight games
* CHI has played five of its last seven games OVER the total
* CHI has covered four of its last 13 home games
* SF has lost its last seven pre-season road games SU
* CHI has covered two of its last seven home pre-season games
Well, I guess we should congratulate the Bears on making their quarterback choice for the season's opening game, as they have designated Kyle Orton the starter against Indianapolis. The Bears obviously have lost patience with Rex Grossman, and what they do with him at this point is anybody's guess. But suffice it to say that there isn't a quarterback competition anymore, at least in training camp.
Meanwhile, the quarterback competition may also be settled in San Francisco, where the Niners bounced back from a lackluster 18-6 loss to the Raiders, in which they turned the ball over four times, to execute a 34-6 rout of the Packers last Saturday. However, coach Mike Nolan has stopped short of saying that, insisting that the job is still open. But J.T. O'Sullivan, the longshot of the trio of Niner signal-callers who opened camp, will start his third straight pre-season game here. Against Green Bay, O'Sullivan was only 8-for-17, and was intercepted, but he also threw for 9.1 yards an attempt, which included a 59-yard TD pass to Josh Morgan. The others struggled.
Some offensive cohesion is badly needed, in light of the Niners' dismal 2007 campaign, in which they were dead last in the NFL in scoring, with just 13.7 points a game. And O'Sullivan is the guy who is most familiar with offensive coordinator Mike Martz's exacting system, because he learned it last year in Detroit. O'Sullivan will go at least the entire first half and may even last longer. He'll be relieved by Alex Smith, with Shawn Hill doing the mop-up work. Three receivers who were out last week - Bryant Johnson, Ashley Lelie and Arnaz Battle - will miss this game too.
That may hurt a little here, especially since the Bears will be using a lot of their defensive starters. And it's the defense that has been keeping the Bears in games thus far. In fact, the defense and special teams were responsible for the first 19 points Chicago scored against Seattle last time out, as the offense really struggled with Grossman at the controls. But maybe the first-team offense has a chance to settle a little bit as it works more with Orton at the helm.
Certainly we have concerns about the Bears' offensive line, but we like the scenario for them here, especially if O'Sullivan doesn't make some bis plays. The Niners may have nowhere else to turn right now, and they have lost seven straight road games in the pre-season. Let's take Chicago, the three-point favorite in the NFL football betting odds.
CHICAGO -3 (-120) **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)
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